CHARLOTTE — The Panthers are alone in first place in the NFC South with two games to play, but their first playoff berth since 2017 is no sure thing.

There are a number of ways this can go over the final two weeks, and it could swing from clinching this week to not making the playoffs at all. The good news is, the Panthers (8-7) have a game advantage, but as they all said after Sunday's win over the Buccaneers (7-8), there's still work to be done.

There are mainly just three games left of interest to the Panthers, though they have to keep tabs on the Falcons in case of a chaos scenario (and since it's the NFC South, that's always possible).

The Panthers host the Seahawks Sunday at 1 p.m., and the Buccaneers go to Miami at the same kickoff time. Then the Panthers close the regular season at Tampa Bay in Week 18 (time TBD).

NFC South standings, entering Week 17

So the simplest scenario for the Panthers includes beating the Seahawks while the Bucs lose to the Dolphins. In that case, the Panthers would clinch the NFC South title heading into Week 18, since they'd be two games up in the head-to-head with one to play.

But the Panthers can also clinch the division by winning at Tampa Bay in Week 18, regardless of any other results, since division record is the first tiebreaker, and that would leave them 4-2 in the NFC South to Tampa Bay's 3-3.

There are tiebreakers that favor the Buccaneers, which give them an opening here, too.

In fact, if Tampa Bay wins its final two games of the season, the Bucs are in regardless of the Panthers result in Week 17.

That's because the Bucs hold a tiebreaker edge in common games (meaning the eight games against the AFC East and NFC West they played this year as part of the divisional rotation).

The Panthers are 3-4 in those games this season, with wins over the Rams, Dolphins, and Jets, along with losses to the Bills, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals. The Buccaneers are 4-3 in those games so far, beating the Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, and Jets, while losing to the Patriots, Bills, and Rams. So if the Bucs beat the Dolphins this week, they'd be 5-3 in common games, and the Panthers couldn't catch them. If it gets to that point, the Panthers' Week 2 loss at the Cardinals will loom large, since the Panthers have a 6-4 to 5-6 edge in conference record, which is the fourth tiebreaker.

The one weirdo possibility — which again, it's the NFC South, and we can't discount it — comes into play if the Panthers lose to the Seahawks, the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, and the Bucs win in Week 18. That would leave both teams at 8-9, with identical 3-3 division records. That would again give the advantage to the Bucs, based on the common games tiebreaker.

Unless, ...

If the 6-9 Falcons win their final two games of the season (against the Rams and Saints, both at home), they could force a three-way tie atop the division. If that happens, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head among the three teams. In that instance, the Panthers would win based on sweeping the Falcons to give them a 3-1 mark in those games, while the Falcons and Bucs split their games, leaving the Bucs at 2-2 in that scenario.

Of course, there is a simpler way to figure this all out, one that also opens the door to the Panthers climbing as high as the third seed in the NFC playoffs.

If they beat the Seahawks next week and the Bucs in Week 18 to improve to 10-7, they could catch the 10-5 Eagles for the third seed in the bracket. (The Eagles close at Buffalo and at home against Washington, with whom they have beef.) But worrying about seeding is a first-world problem.

If the Panthers win their next two games, they'll be NFC South division champions for the first time since 2015. And that will mean the first home playoff game since the NFC Championship Game win over the Cardinals on Jan. 24, 2016.

So as they said, it's all in front of them, and the easiest way to do this is to win two more games, and eliminate the need for tiebreaker math, or help from others.