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Panthers postseason scenario breakdown: One game to go

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Tyler Kaufman)

CHARLOTTE — It all comes down to the Falcons now.

The Panthers missed an opportunity to take care of their own business Saturday, falling 16-14 to the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, which means they'll all be watching on television today.

"Hell yeah, I've got to. I got no choice," defensive captain Derrick Brown said Saturday night when asked if he'd be watching. "I live my life where I don't need anybody to do anything for me. So I mean it's tough to have to sit around and, you know, wait to see the result (Sunday)."

Saturday's result leaves the Panthers and Bucs tied at 8-9, and the Buccaneers would advance based on the common opponents tiebreaker, unless the Falcons beat the Saints Sunday to create a three-way tie atop the NFC South.

If that happens, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head among the three teams. In that instance, the Panthers would win based on sweeping the Falcons to give them a 3-1 mark in those games, while the Falcons and Bucs split their games, leaving the Bucs at 2-2 in that scenario.

If the Saints beat the Falcons today (1 p.m. ET, FOX), the Bucs will advance in a two-way tiebreaker with the Panthers, based on the third tiebreaker edge in common games.

The Panthers are 3-5 in the games against the NFC West and AFC East, while the Bucs are 4-4 in those games.

The Panthers had wins over the Rams, Dolphins, and Jets, along with losses to the Seahawks, Bills, Patriots, 49ers, and Cardinals. The Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, and Jets, while losing to the Patriots, Bills, Dolphins, and Rams.

If it gets to that point, the Panthers' Week 2 loss to the Cardinals on the road will loom large.

That would be the most painful end of the season for a team that has steadily improved from two wins to five wins to eight in the past two seasons.

But if the Falcons win, the Panthers will still host the fifth seed in the NFC, which will be either the 49ers or the Rams. The Seahawks clinched the one seed Saturday night by beating the 49ers.

The Rams can still become the fifth seed by beating the Cardinals Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET, which would leave the 49ers as the sixth seed and headed to either Philadelphia or Chicago. If the Cardinals upset the Rams, the 49ers would be the five seed.

For reference, the Panthers beat the Rams 31-28 at home in Week 13. They lost 20-9 to the 49ers on the road in Week 12.

The date and time of that wild card round game will be determined later this weekend. Ticket information would be available at Panthers.com/tickets.

But whatever happens, resetting on Monday if the Falcons win won't be a challenge for them, after everything they've been through. Because that will mean they're division champs, no matter how they got there.

"I mean, refocusing has never been a problem for us," left tackle Ikem said. "Week in and week out, I feel like we always come in on a Sunday ready to go; we've got to make sure we're able to get out there on the field."

Check out some of the best shots from the Panthers' Week 18 game against the Buccaneers.

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