CHARLOTTE — Welcome to the four-game football season.

The Panthers woke up Monday morning well-rested for it, after a hard-earned bye week.

They also woke up tied for first in the NFC South with the Buccaneers, with twin 7-6 records earned in different ways, which creates a lot of possibilities for the next month.

Now, this is where we're compelled to say that Panthers head coach Dave Canales will tell his team today that there is one important game, and all they're focused on is this week's trip to New Orleans (after the Saints did the Panthers a favor yesterday in Tampa).

And frankly, that's the right play for him to call, because a fanatical devotion to compartmentalization is part of the reason they're having this conversation now. The Panthers have made their improvements all year by keeping their focus tight and working on small things until they get better. And they are better, so there's proof of concept. So, if you play or coach for the Panthers, as much as we appreciate the support, you have to stop reading now.

(Stop peeking, guys; Seriously, Dave will yell at you. And then me.)

For the rest of you, here's what's possible in the weeks to come.

Can they win the division?

Of course they can. All they have to do is finish with a better record than the Buccaneers.

Having two games against the Bucs (in Weeks 16 and 18) provides opportunity, but that won't matter as much if they lose sight of this week's game against the Saints. And if any of them watched TV yesterday, all they saw was an object lesson.

In addition to the Saints game and two with the Bucs, the Panthers also host the 10-3 Seahawks in Week 17.

The Bucs host the 4-9 Falcons this week, and go to Miami in Week 17.

What happens if they're tied?

This is where it gets tricky, and math is involved at a certain point.

Say the Panthers and Bucs split their games, and both finish 9-8 (or, let's get weird, it is the NFC South, 8-9).

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head games, putting a huge burden on Weeks 16 and 18.

The second tiebreaker is division record, and right now, both are sitting at 2-1 with three to play. That also means the Panthers can't overlook the Saints, and the Bucs can't overlook the Falcons.

If those stay tied, that's where the Bucs' edge comes in.

The third tiebreaker is common opponents, and right now, Tampa Bay has a one-game advantage there.

The NFC South played the entire NFC West and the AFC East this year. The Panthers are 3-4 in those games with the Seahawks left to play. The Bucs are 4-3 with the aforementioned Dolphins game left.

That Week 2 loss to the Cardinals was tough for the Panthers, since the Bucs beat them, and the same goes for the Week 12 loss to the 49ers (another Bucs victim this year). Of course, the Panthers beat the Rams, and the Bucs didn't, so it's just a one-game gap. Regardless of what happens in the division games, if the Panthers beat the Seahawks and the Bucs lose to the Dolphins, you're looking at going another layer down the tiebreaker rabbit hole.

What happens then?

The fourth tiebreaker is conference record, and right now, Carolina is 5-3 to the Bucs' 5-4, which creates the opportunity for a tie there.

The fifth tiebreaker is strength of victory, which is calculated by the win-loss record of the teams you beat.

Obviously, this can change wildly week-to-week based on results.

At this particular moment, the Panthers have a two-game edge in this category, as the seven teams they've beaten are a combined 42-47-1, compared to the 40-51 of the teams the Bucs have beaten.

This is where it gets messy, because you have to start tracking the results of games you're not involved in.

After that, it gets even weirder.

The sixth tiebreaker is strength of schedule in all games, followed by the following things we're not even getting into yet:

• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Call me back in Week 17 at the soonest if you want to go deep on that.

Could they still be the wild card?

I mean, sure, in a Lloyd Christmas miracle kind of way.

Right now, the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC are the 9-4 49ers and Bears. The 49ers obviously have a head-to-head edge on the Panthers, making it a de facto three-game lead with four to play. The Bears are two games ahead with four to play, but the 8-5 Lions are between them. So the traffic is a problem, as it generally is everywhere this time of year.

Clearly, the simplest path is winning the division, since it reduces external factors.

So what are they hoping happens?

Glad you asked.

They're hoping to focus solely on the Saints this week.

Because as much fun as it is being in the "In The Hunt" graphics (and it certainly beats the alternative), this time of year also has stakes. There's no room for error if you want to go to the playoffs. (Dang it, made it this far without saying the word and hearing Jim Mora's voice in my head the rest of the day).

It's that time of year. Celebrate wisely.