CHARLOTTE — As a number of Panthers players and coaches said last night, it's still all in front of them.
The path just got a lot steeper and narrower with the loss to the Saints.
The Panthers and Buccaneers remain tied at 7-7 heading into the final three games — two against each other — but the Bucs have the easier road to the playoffs because of some arcane tiebreaker rules.
And while there are a lot of permutations that can make your head hurt, there's an easy version for the Panthers — winning out and finishing 10-7.
But beyond that, there are a lot of ways this thing can go the next three weeks, which include the Panthers hosting the Bucs Sunday, followed by a Week 17 that includes the Panthers hosting the Seahawks and the Bucs going to Miami, and then the Week 18 Panthers-Bucs finale in Tampa.
Games of interest for the Panthers
| Week | Game | Time and TV |
|---|---|---|
| Week 16 | Bucs at Panthers | 12/21, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) |
| Week 17 | Seahawks at Panthers | 12/28, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) |
| Week 17 | Bucs at Dolphins | 12/28, 1 p.m. ET (FOX) |
| Week 18 | Panthers at Bucs | TBD |
Because we'd rather light a candle than curse your darkness, we might as well start with the longest shot and work our way to the more conceivable.
If the Panthers lose to the Bucs on Sunday, the only path to the playoffs includes beating the Seahawks in Week 17 and then the Bucs in Week 18, coupled with a Bucs loss to the Dolphins. That would leave the Panthers a game ahead in overall record, making the math easy.
That's the only combination of results that includes a Panthers loss in Week 16 that gets them to the postseason, primarily because the Panthers trail in tiebreakers at that point. After overall record, the tiebreakers are, in order:
- Head-to-head
- Division record (both 2-2 at the moment)
- Common opponents (in this case, what they did against the AFC East and NFC West, and the Panthers' loss to the Cardinals in Week 2 looms large here since the Bucs beat the Cards. As it stands, the Panthers are 3-4 and the Bucs 4-3 in this one)
- Conference record (Panthers 5-4 and Bucs 5-5 at the moment)
- Strength of victory (Panthers 45-50-2 and Bucs 45-53 at the moment, and this can change with the results of the Falcons, Dolphins, Cowboys, Jets, Packers, Rams, Texans, Seahawks, 49ers, Saints, and Cardinals. Buckle up.)
- After that, it gets really confusing, and we'll get to it later if we need to.
If the Panthers win Sunday in front of a home crowd at Bank of America Stadium, the odds improve substantially.
A win over the Seahawks in Week 17 would then nearly clinch things. The only way the Panthers win the next two and don't make the postseason would be if the Bucs beat the Dolphins and then the Panthers in Week 18.
(Feel free to root for the Dolphins.)
If the Panthers beat the Bucs this week and lose to the Seahawks in Week 17, they make the playoffs if they beat the Bucs in Tampa in Week 18, regardless of the outcome of the Bucs-Dolphins game.
In any of the other combinations of results of the four games in question, the Panthers fall short of the playoffs.
That will obviously sting. But for a team that won two games in 2023 and five last year, the improvement this year remains significant.
And the simple act of talking playoffs 10 days before Christmas shows how far this team has come.
Check out some of the best shots from the Panthers' Week 15 game against the Saints.
